Serie A: Big Guns Aim for Big Boost

AC Milan vs Lazio

Eighth and fifth place isn’t exactly where either of these Serie A big boys would like to be, but that is the reality facing both AC Milan and Lazio as they prepare to meet this weekend.

Milan are struggling to qualify for Europe via the league, although they are still in the Coppa Italia, where a Milan derby awaits in the semi-finals, and their latest league setback saw them go down 2-1 to Bologna in midweek.

Meanwhile, Lazio are in fifth spot, just two points off the guaranteed final Champions League berth, but this SBOTOP pundit is not convinced they will have what it takes to leapfrog Juventus (despite the Turn club displaying mixed form of their own).

That means for all the Serie A 2025 highlights we may see this weekend, all that matters to these clubs is points – however, they are secured.

 

Talking Points 

Whatever happens this season, Milan will always have Saudi Arabia. Only a few weeks ago, with new manager Sergio Conceicao barely through the door, they travelled to the Middle East to compete in the Super Coppa (the Italian Super Cup) where they were given little chance of succeeding.

Trailing 2-0 to arch rivals Inter in the final, the holders and Serie A champions, why would anyone back the Rossoneri given they had just sacked their manager and were struggling? The rest is history and proved a glorious moment for all connected with the club.

Fast forward six weeks, and the reaction of Conceicao after Thursday’s defeat did nothing to suggest he will be around long-term as the Portuguese boss admitted he is uncertain about his future. Aside from the Super Coppa triumph, Conceiçao’s tenure has been a mixed bag with a Champions League play-off exit and only eight victories from 16 since he replaced his compatriot, Paulo Fonseca.

Conceiçao’s record in charge of Milan also includes three draws and five defeats across all competitions and, while he is contracted until 2026, Milan do have a clause to terminate the agreement at the end of the season.

This weekend will be Lazio’s second visit to the San Siro in a week, and manager Marco Baroni remains upbeat they can secure a more positive result second time around after their 2-0 Coppa Italia quarter-final defeat to Inter.

The Biancocelesti have not been helped by the loss of their most influential centre-forward, Taty Castellanos, who picked up an injury a few weeks ago in a 2-2 draw with title-chasing Napoli, so don’t be surprised of veteran Pedro spearheads their attack.

They will also have to make do without Elseid Hysaj and Fisayo Dele-Bashiru, while Milan have injury issues of their own, particularly at right-back where on-loan England man Kyle Walker is sidelined due to a thigh injury, with other right-backs Emerson Royal and Alessandro Florenzi both still absent.

The points are vital for both clubs to help take them where they want to be, and a draw will be of little use to either.

 

History

The sides shared four goals when they met earlier this season. Strahinja Pavlović gave Milan an eighth-minute lead before three goals in 10 second half minutes provided the drama. Castellanos levelled for the hosts who then led through Boulaye Dia, only for Rafael Leão to level the scores two minutes after coming on as a substitute.

Milan won this fixture 2-0 last term with second-half goals from Christian Pulisic and Noah Okafor.

The last time Lazio won on Milan turf was in November 2019 when Ciro Immobile and Joaquín Correa scored the goals in a 2-1 Serie A win. They also beat Milan the previous season on their way to clinching the Coppa Italia when Correa scored the only goal of the semi-final second leg.

 

Betting Tip

The Serie A 2025 betting odds make Milan favourites, which I can understand on home turf, but Lazio will have hope traveling to the San Siro, even though they have just one league victory at Milan in the past two decades.1X2 odds back the hosts @ 2.04 and the visitors @ 3.28 – the draw will pay out @ 3.25. Asian Handicap odds for the hosts, including -0.75 @ 2.42, have a distinct appeal, but then again, so does Lazio +0.25 @ 2.13.

Another 2-2 draw will earn you a tidy pay day @ 14.00 with our Correct Score odds, while you can benefit from odds @ 10.50 with a repeat of the corresponding 2-0 home success last season.

If you fancy goals, it is worth considering Over 3.00 @ 2.38, Total Goal 2-3 @ 2.00 and 4-6 @ 3.12.

Lazio may have been edged out of the Coppa Italia at the same ground in midweek, but I think their return will prove more successful.

   

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