Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen
Mainz are enjoying their best season in quite some time, and they can cap off their 2024-25 campaign with a trip to Europe next term. However, they’re in for a difficult final test, as they will host Bayer Leverkusen at MEWA Park this Saturday in the final matchday of this Bundesliga season.
Bo Henriksen’s men are coming off a 4-1 win over VfL Bochum, making them undefeated in three of their last four matches. The 05ers are sixth in the table with 51 points, level with seventh-seeded RB Leipzig, so they must win this contest or else they might miss out.
Meanwhile, Bayer Leverkusen are second in the German top-flight standings with 68 points, and they’re guaranteed a Champions League berth next season. They failed to defend the Meisterschale, but they will be keen to give head coach Xabi Alonso a fitting farewell by winning his last league game at the helm.
Talking Points
Burkardt back on Mainz’s scoresheet
After going five Bundesliga games without a goal, Jonathan Burkardt recently returned to the scoring column. The German international scored the much-needed equaliser against Eintracht Frankfurt before the hour mark to hold them to a 1-1 draw, and he also found the back of the net in the team’s 4-1 demolition of VfL Bochum last Saturday.
Burkardt now has 17 league goals this season, putting him fourth in the Bundesliga Golden Boot race. Given Burkardt’s fine performances this year, Mainz might be tempted to cash in on the 24-year-old striker, though he’s under contract until 2027.
According to local reports, Burkardt and Nadiem Amiri have held off on committing another year with the 05ers, preferring to wait until after the season to decide their futures. Securing a European football berth should make Burkardt and Amiri think twice about leaving Mainz.
Mainz remain compromised at the back, as centre-backs Dominik Kohr (knee), Mortiz Jenz (nose), and Maxim Dal (knee) will miss the final game due to injuries. Head coach Bo Henriksen will likely stick with the back three of Andreas Hanche-Olsen, Stefan Bell, and Danny da Costa against Bayer Leverkusen.
Alonso to move on from Bayer Leverkusen
Saturday marks Xabi Alonso’s final Bundesliga match with Bayer Leverkusen. He’ll leave the club as a beloved hero after helping them win their first Meisterschale last year. Alonso has reportedly agreed to replace Carlo Ancelotti at Real Madrid.
Alonso’s impending departure could also trigger some player departures. If recent reports are to be believed, Bayer Leverkusen could lose Jeremie Frimpong, Alejandro Grimaldo, and Jonathan Tah, with Frimpong garnering interest from Liverpool and Grimaldo and Tah keen to join Alonso in Real Madrid.
Bayer Leverkusen will likely stick with the same starting XI they had against Borussia Dortmund since their injury list remains unchanged. Jeanuel Belocian (knee), Mario Hermoso (chest), Alejo Sarco (thigh), and Martin Terrier (Achilles) are in the medical room.
History
Bayer Leverkusen won 1-0 against Mainz in their reverse fixture last January at the BayArena, as Alejandro Grimaldo scored the only goal three minutes after the halftime break. Since the start of 2018, Die Werkself have won 11 of their last 14 Bundesliga matches against the 05ers (D1, L2), including each of their last three.
However, Bayer Leverkusen have only won one of their last five Bundesliga matches. Last weekend’s 4-2 defeat against Borussia Dortmund saw Die Werkself concede more than three Bundesliga goals for the first time since a 5-1 defeat against Eintracht Frankfurt in October 2022.
Xabi Alonso’s men are unbeaten in their last 33 Bundesliga away matches (W23, D10) since a 3-0 loss at VfL Bochum in May 2023.
51 points from 33 matches represent Mainz’s second-best Bundesliga campaign (55 points in 2010-11). The 05ers could qualify for Europe for only the fourth time and first since 2015-16.
Betting Tip
The Bundesliga 2025 odds expect a close fight between Mainz and Bayer Leverkusen. Because they’re playing at home, Mainz have a slight edge at 2.17, whereas Bayer Leverkusen are at 2.85 odds to win, and a draw is at 3.44 in the 1X2 market. The hosts need this win more than the visitors but Die Werkself’s advantage in quality should be enough to see this through.
Both teams should generate new Bundesliga 2025 highlights, but not too many. Besides our recommended bet, SBOTOP bettors are advised to go for alternatives like Total Goals 2-3 at 2.20, Under 3.50 at 1.66, Under 3.25 at 1.85, and Under 3.00 at 2.13. Furthermore, a Correct Score of 1-0 in favour of Bayer Leverkusen – the result of the reverse fixture – could yield a handsome payday of 14.50.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT)
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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