World Cup 2026: Germany Have Little Margin for Error Against Northern Ireland

Germany vs Northern Ireland

Germany’s World Cup 2026 qualifying campaign is off to a poor start, as Julian Nagelsmann’s side dropped its first game. Die Mannschaft suffered a historic 2-0 loss to Slovakia yesterday, and as a result, they are now at the bottom of Group A with zero points.

On the other hand, Northern Ireland temporarily took the top spot in the group following their 3-1 win over Luxembourg. However, their hold might not last too long, as Germany are significantly more talented than Luxembourg.

​Securing the top spot is the primary objective for these two sides when they meet at Windsor Park this Sunday, as doing so will guarantee their qualification to next year’s World Cup. Meanwhile, finishing in second is a much more complicated path, as they will have to go through the inter-confederation play-offs.

Will the Green and White Army stay undefeated, or will Die Mannschaft get their first win?

 

Talking Points

Germany to make radical defensive  change

Germany’s recent loss to Slovakia was embarrassing to say the least. It was only their fourth loss in a World Cup qualifier, and head coach Julian Nagelsmann may be worried ahead of the Northern Ireland game since the result leaves them with little margin for error. Before this, Die Mannschaft lost their last two matches in the UEFA Nations League, losing to Portugal in the semi-finals and to France in the battle for third place.

Since Nagelsmann took charge in September 2023, Germany have won just half of their 24 matches, keeping a mere five clean sheets in their last 17. He must address their backline fast, which has conceded at least two goals in every match so far this year.

Nagelsmann’s quick fix could be reinserting David Raum at the starting right-back spot against the Green and White Army to replace Nnamdi Collins. Collins had an international debut to forget against Slovakia, as Leo Sauer ran circles around him before he was yanked at halftime.

​Raum will likely join Antonio Rudiger, Jonathan Tah, and Maximilian Mittelstadt in the back four, with Waldemar Anton and Robin Koch as their off-the-bench options, to shield goalkeeper Oliver Baumann.

 

Key absences for Northern Ireland

Besides the talent disadvantage compared to Germany, Northern Ireland will also miss a handful of key players this international break. QPR forward Paul Smyth became the latest victim of the injury bug, and he’ll join defenders Daniel Ballard, Brodie Spencer, and Claron Brown on the sidelines. Goalkeepers Pierce Charles and Conor Hazard were also omitted from the national team due to injuries.

Head coach Michael O’Neill has called on Bailey Peacock-Farrell to be the Green and White Army’s first-choice goalie this international break, and the Blackpool star is expected to reach his 50th cap against Germany. 

Northern Ireland are expected to be more pragmatic against a loaded German squad this weekend. So, don’t be surprised if O’Neill recalls defensive  midfielder George Saville and centre-back Ruairi McConville into the starting XI.

 

History

The overall head-to-heads between these two sides are lopsided, as Die Mannschaft have 13 wins compared to only two wins and four draws for the Green and White Army.

These two teams last met in the Euro 2020 qualifiers in November 2019, where Germany pummeled Northern Ireland at Deutsche Bank Park. Michael Smith gave Northern Ireland a one-goal lead in the seventh minute, but Serge Gnabry had a hat-trick, Leon Goretzka had a brace, and Julian Brandt had one goal to give Germany the 6-1 victory.

Germany have always qualified for the World Cup since 1934, and they are four-time world champions. However, they’ve never advanced from the group stage in the last two editions. In contrast, Northern Ireland last qualified for the World Cup in 1986 and have been trying to return ever since.

 

Betting Tip

The SBOTOP World Cup 2026 odds predict Germany to return to winning ways this Sunday. Die Mannschaft are 1.11 favourites to win, whereas the Green and White Army are massive 14.00 underdogs, and a draw is at 7.60 in the 1X2 market.

Barring any unforeseen circumstances, Germany should take their first three points of the qualifiers at the expense of Northern Ireland, and they should do it while creating new World Cup 2026 highlights. Besides our recommended bet above, bettors may be tempted to add Over 3.25 at 1.89, Over 3.50 at 2.16, and Total Goal 4-6 at 2.31. Furthermore, a Correct Score of 2-0 in favour of Germany – the result of one of their most recent encounters – also offers a decent payout of 5.80 your bet.

   

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