AC Milan vs Fiorentina
Scudetto hopefuls AC Milan host struggling Fiorentina on Sunday night to bring Round 7 of the 2025/26 Serie A to a close, and I expect I Rossoneri to heap a whole load of pain on their visitors.
With four wins, a draw, and a single defeat on the opening day of the season, I Rossoneri are in fourth place, two points behind leaders Napoli and AS Roma, while Fiorentina are languishing down in 17th after failing to win any of their first six Serie A games. La Viola are desperate to turn their form around, but while they have been picking up draws on the road, this is probably their biggest challenge yet.
Talking Points
Pulisic is in top form for Milan
Under Massimiliano Allegri, AC Milan have put together a superb string of Serie A 2025 results, winning four on the bounce before drawing 0-0 with title rivals Juventus last time out. Under Allegri, Milan have a tight defencive structure with fluidity in attack, and that has allowed Christian Pulisic the chance to flourish. The USA star has scored 27 goals in 76 games for Milan since his 2023 transfer from Chelsea, and he is on a hot streak of form this season. With four goals, Pulisic is the joint leader in the race for the Capocannoniere, alongside Bologna’s Riccardo Orsolini, and he has made two assists in six league games so far.
The addition of Croatian legend Luka Modric to the Rossoneri creative unit feels like a masterstroke, as he has lost none of his fitness and guile, and Modric has become a key man in the middle of the park and the final third. He is a superb link-up player for Pulisic, and with the experienced Adrien Rabiot alongside, this is a midfield full of world-class quality.
Rafael Leao and Christopher Nkunku add the flair and unpredictability. But as they showed in Milan’s meeting with Juventus last time out under Allegri, the defence, marshalled by Fikayo Tomori, is as good as it gets in the league. And this balance has prompted the Serie A 2025 betting odds to install Milan as third favourites for the league title, not so far behind Napoli and Inter Milan and ahead of Juventus.
Toothless Viola must find their bite
A Scudetto winner with AC Milan, Stefano Pioli, in his second stint as Viola boss, has found life difficult in Serie A while the club is going well in Europe. It will already be difficult to match last season’s sixth place finish, and if Pioli can’t turn La Viola’s form around, a top-half place may even become a challenge.
In attack, Fiorentina have fallen well short, scoring just four goals. Two of their away draws were goalless. 28-year-old defencive midfielder Rolando Mandragora is top scoring with two, and striker Moise Kean scored in the defeat to Roma. However, any cutting edge La Viola have seems to be blunt.
The main note of encouragement has been Fiorentina’s away form. La Viola won 3-0 away in the Europa Conference League against Polissya Zhytomyr and have drawn in the league away to Cagliari, Torino, and Pisa.
It is at home where the players have laboured the most. Fiorentina hosted champions Napoli for their opening game in Florence and lost 3-1 before going down by the odd goal in three to ambitious Como. Last time out, La Viola went down 2-1 to Roma, so the fixture list, with the top two teams in the first six games, could have been kinder.
History
Over the last 50 meetings between these two sides, Milan have won 22, Fiorentina have won 15, and there have been 13 draws. But in more recent times, La Viola have done pretty well, winning two and drawing one of the last five. Last season, Fiorentina won in Florence before playing out a 2-2 draw in Milan.
But I Rossoneri have been superb at home this season, winning all three league games and beating Lecce in the Coppa Italia, conceding just one goal along the way. And with five wins and a draw from six games, Milan are hard to find fault with.
On the other hand, Fiorentina have struggled badly for rhythm, losing three, drawing two and winning only a Europa Conference League game against Sigma.
Betting Tip
Milan are at SBOTOP odds of 1.55 to win this Sunday night clash, with the draw at 4.00 and La Viola at 6.00. I think I Rossoneri will have too much for their visitors at a packed San Siro Stadium, but I’m not expecting a glut of goals.
Milan are superbly well-organised, and Fiorentina have been shot-shy, particularly away from home. For an alternative bet, I believe a 1-0 win for Milan, at odds of 6.50, won’t be far from the mark.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT)
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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