EFL Cup: Leaders Welcome the History Boys

Arsenal vs Brighton & Hove Albion

It was only after reading a piece from my colleagues at Sports Mole that I realised this EFL Cup clash between Arsenal and Brighton involves the competition’s history makers.

For the Seagulls became just that when they etched their name into the EFL Cup annals last month, becoming the first side in the history of the competition to win back-to-back games by six goals or more.

Fabian Hurzeler’s men first obliterated Oxford United 6-0 in the second round in August and then put another six without reply past Barnsley just over a month ago.

Four of their strikes that night came via Diego Gomez, the first player to score that many in an EFL Cup away game since Julio Baptista for Arsenal against Liverpool in 2007.

Now he will be hoping to down the Premier League leaders, even though that may appear a daunting prospect given they are unbeaten in 10 matches and have won in each of their last seven outings.

 

Talking Points

I really think Brighton can produce EFL Cup 2025 highlights in North London.

That may seem bizarre given they have had to sell numerous players and staff to bigger vultures in recent years and did so again this summer. Yet they continue to thrive and would relish a cup run.

What’s more, the dangerous Kaoru Mitoma (ankle), Joel Veltman (calf), and Brajan Gruda (knee) may all be available again as they close in on comebacks from injury.

Arsenal’s squad depth is impressive, but it needs to be noted that long-term knee absentee Kai Havertz, captain Martin Odegaard, summer signing Noni Madueke, and Brazilian forward Gabriel Jesus are all on an eight-strong absentee list for the hosts.

Furthermore, their league victory over Crystal Palace on Sunday came at a potential cost on the fitness front, with William Saliba, Declan Rice, Riccardo Calafiori, and Gabriel Martinelli all picking up knocks, which means they are unlikely to be risked in this one. That could be Brighton’s chance, and one that may well be ready to take.

 

History

Arsenal have defeated Brighton 17 times in history – twice as many as the other way round (eight) – but you might expect that figure to be higher given the differing resources between the club from the capital and the club from the south coast. A further seven meetings have ended all square.

The Seagulls have actually shocked the Gunners on more than one occasion in recent years, including the third round of the League Cup three years ago when Eddie Nketiah put Arsenal in front before Danny Welbeck levelled from the penalty spot against his former club, and Kaoru Mitoma and Tariq Lamptey took control in the second half to seal an impressive 3-1 success.

Believe it or not, Arsenal have only won three of their last nine meetings against Brighton in all competitions. Last season, both league meetings finished one apiece.

Havertz had put the Gunners ahead at the Emirates, but Joao Pedro equalised as the home side finished with 10 men.

The return in January on the south coast also ended 1-1 as Ethan Nwaneri’s opener was cancelled out by a penalty from Pedro, now of Chelsea.

Their very first meeting was in the FA Cup in 1935 when goals from the legendary Ted Drake and Joe Hulme sealed a 2-0 victory for Arsenal.

 

Betting Tip

Brighton have now avoided defeat in six of their last eight visits to the Emirates Stadium in all competitions, winning four of them, and I think they will do so again. The SBOTOP EFL Cup 2025 betting odds don’t, and nor would you expect them to.

Odds include Arsenal 1X2 @ 1.44 and Asian Handicap -1.50 @ 2.31, compared to the Seagulls 1X2 @ 5.70 and Asian Handicap +1.25 @ 1.83. Even the draw @ 4.26 isn’t fancied, and a third successive 1-1 draw will pay out @ 8.20 with Correct Score.

There have only been three goalless draws between the sides in history, and I am bearing that in mind when I consider Total Goal 0-1 @ 3.83, 2-3 @ 2.02, and 4-6 @ 2.57. I am going to go for the Seagulls to edge this as they chase cup glory. While I believe Arsenal possess a squad that can end their title drought, I do not think Mikel Arteta will prioritise this fixture over next weekend’s meeting with Burnley, especially with a few key players carrying knocks.

   

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