Champions League: Victory is the Only Currency in the French Capital

PSG vs Newcastle United

PSG and Newcastle United have always been big clubs, well before my lifetime and well before the “new money” that has been invested into them in more recent times.

The Parisiens’ fortunes changed dramatically when they were bought by the Qatari-based QSI in 2011, while the Geordies have only looked upwards since 2021, when a consortium of three Saudi groups took control on Tyneside.

That investment, coupled with the modern-day format of the Champions League, which attracts far more teams, explains why they are now both very familiar with the competition, particularly the former.

It also helps explain why, with one group match remaining, both sides are sitting in the top eight of the standings, which secures a place in the last 16.

Yet while both have 13 points – sixth and seventh respectively – so do six other teams, while the team PSG defeated in last season’s final, Inter Milan, and compatriots Juventus are on 12.

The upshot is that there is no room for error for either PSG or Newcastle, and only a win will be enough to be certain of automatic progress this Wednesday.

 

Talking Points

Both experienced mixed European fortunes last week to set up this showdown. Newcastle enjoyed Champions League 2026 highlights aplenty with a 3-0 home win over PSV Eindhoven to make it four wins from seven, although the sight of their captain Bruno Guimaraes hobbling off with an ankle injury was a worry for manager Eddie Howe.

At the same time, PSG were going down to a 2-1 defeat at Sporting Lisbon in Portugal when a victory would have all but sealed their place with one group game to go.

It wasn’t as if Luis Enrique’s holders played badly; in fact, they enjoyed more than 70-per cent possession and had 28 shots during a dominant showing, only to lose to two goals from the Colombian striker Luis Suarez.

They also had three goals ruled out for offside and fouls and it is difficult to see them having such misfortune two weeks on the bounce.

While the Parisiens will be missing Fabian Ruiz (knee), and there are doubts over Lee Kang-in (thigh) and Joao Neves (muscle contusion), Enrique’s selection in their Lique 1 clash with Auxerre last Friday night was telling for me.

It was a contest in which Achraf Hakimi was rested and a contest in which World Player of the Year Ousmane Dembele and Desire Doue came on as substitutes. Lucas Hernandez is also set to return from European suspension.

For Newcastle, who have never beaten a Ligue 1 side on French soil in the tournament, both Fabian Schar and Guimaraes are doubtful, while Joelinton came off injured in their league match against Aston Villa on Sunday.

I just think this will be one game where the difference in available options strength is telling, and after PSG put five past Spurs (and conceded three) just a few months ago, I can see another high-scoring affair and a win for the hosts.

 

History

This will be only the third ever meeting between the clubs. Their very first match-up was in the group stages of the Champions League at St. James’ Park just over two years ago (October 2023).

On that occasion, Eddie Howe’s side turned on the style as goals from Miguel Almiron, Dan Burn, Sean Longstaff, and Fabian Schar inflicted a 4-1 defeat on Les Parisiens and secured the Toon’s first victory in Europe’s premier club competition since November 2002.

The following month in Paris was far more dramatic as a penalty in the eighth minute of stoppage time – controversially awarded and converted by Kylian Mbappe – cancelled out Alexander Isak’s opener in a 1-1 draw.

Those two points lost proved vital, as the Magpies wound up bottom of the group with five points, while PSG finished three points above them in second place to reach the knockout stages.

 

Betting Tip

The SBOTOP Champions League 2026 betting odds back the European champions, and so do I. It’s hard to envisage them missing out on a top eight finish and automatic qualification – even though they had to navigate a play-off last season en route to being crowned champions.

You can get odds on them 1X2 @ 1.48 and Asian Handicap -1.25 @ 2.13. Newcastle are priced very attractively, both 1X2 @ 5.10 and Asian Handicap + 0.75 @ 2.36.

A draw would keep them level on points with their hosts in the standings but probably also risk both side’s chances of finishing in the top eight. You can earn a pay day that way with 1X2 Draw @ 4.25 and a re-run of their only previous meeting in the French capital @ 8.60 with Correct Score 1-1.

I cannot see no goals in this one, or even Total Goals 0-1 @ 4.72. I can, though, expect Total Goals 2-3 @ 2.17, 4-6 @ 2.53 and Over 3.25 @ 2.05.

It’s hard not to back the champions of Europe, though.

   

●●●

CHECK OUT OUR BLOG FOR MORE FOOTBALL STORIES & ODDS

Stay updated with everything sports and betting.

Follow us on social Facebook, X and Instagram.