Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
For a team just one point off the La Liga summit, you wouldn’t think Real Madrid were under pressure to deliver La Liga 2026 highlights. But there again, Real Madrid aren’t like any other club.
They are certainly the only club I can recall, in my lifetime, to have sacked a manager straight after winning a league title. The superb Vicente del Bosque was removed from his post just a day after he guided them to the 2003 La Liga crown (but missed out in Europe).
That may seem bizarre to most of the footballing world, for a club which craves being king of the continent above anything and everything else, an under-par showing in the Champions League is usually deemed unacceptable.
As a result, their fortunes in midweek mean there is an element of pressure on Los Blancos as they prepare to host their neighbours, Rayo Vallecano, in the Spanish capital.
Talking Points
Vallecano, situated in the Vallecas neighbourhood of Madrid, shouldn’t stand a chance, realistically. They are currently 16th in the table, just one point clear of the drop zone, and have won just one of their last six league games.
By contrast, Madrid have won their last five on the bounce. I think their anger at what happened in midweek will also spur them on to win this with something to spare.
This SBOTOP scribe has been pretty cutting in his views about their decision to sack Xabi Alonso earlier this month and replace him with a rookie.
In fact, I stand by my belief that the decision to fill the vacancy with reserve team coach Alvaro Arbeloa will ultimately see them fall further behind leaders and reigning champions Barcelona (even if he is only in post temporarily).
As if his first week in charge wasn’t embarrassing enough (they were dumped out of the Copa del Rey by the minnows of Segunda Division side Albacete), Arbeloa has now seen the mighty Real slip out of the top eight in the Champions League.
On Wednesday night, they lost their discipline in the closing stages of their match against Benfica in Portugal – presumably knowing they had been the architects of their own downfall – on their way to a 4-2 defeat.
Raul Asencio and Rodrygo were both dismissed in injury time, a result which left them in ninth place in the group and needing to contest a last 32 play-off tie next month rather than an automatic place in the final 16.
For a club which prides itself on being top of the tree on the world stage, that isn’t good enough (even though I fully expect them to overcome the next hurdle).
I expect them to overcome Vallecano too. Los Franjirrojos have been playing in Europe for just the second time in their history, and they have fared well in the Europa Conference League, designed for smaller clubs.
The club, who have spent the majority of their history in the Segunda Division, have just signed Villarreal winger Ilias Akhomach on loan for the rest of the season and he may well have an important role to play.
As respected Spanish footballer writer Sid Lowe said after they secured qualification for European football last term, there is something about Vallecas, Madrid’s self-consciously working class, left-wing neighbourhood, and the team that represents it.
No one gives them a chance against the mighty Real Madrid – and that may well suit them.
History
Vallecano held Real to a goalless draw in the league in November, but a trip to the Bernabeu is likely to be a more daunting prospect.
This fixture usually goes the way of Madrid. These two sides have locked horns on 48 occasions throughout history, and it is Real that lead the overall head-to-head record with 33 wins to Vallecano’s seven, while there have only been eight draws.
Madrid have incredibly scored 119 times in their 48 matches with Rayo, while Cristiano Ronaldo is the all-time leading goalscorer in this fixture with 12.
One of the rare Vallecano successes came in their top-flight meeting in 2022 (seven games ago) when Santi Comesana, Alvaro Garcia, and a Oscar Trejo penalty earned them a 3-2 home victory in La Liga. Luka Modric (penalty) and Eder Militao responded.
Vallecano have suffered some really heavy defeats at the Bernabeu, and you have to go back to 1996 for when they last won there – a game when a double from Guilherme de Cassio Alves secured a 2-1 success against opponents whose line-up included Raul (their scorer that day), Fernando Hierro, Fernando Redondo, and Michael Laudrup.
Real’s biggest ever win in this fixture arrived in December 2015, when they incredibly recorded a 10-2 victory.
Betting Tip
As home bankers go, this is one and our La Liga 2026 betting odds concur.
My tip – Asian Handicap Real -2.00 @ 2.25 – won’t earn you a massive payday but provides common sense in what is a meeting between the haves and the have-nots.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT)
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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