After a drama-filled play-off round this week, the survivors are one step away from the World Cup 2026 showcase, and next week, it will be winner takes all.
The semi-final play-offs saw the likes of Wales and the Republic of Ireland bow out, but four-time World Cup winners Italy are still fighting, and that’s where we start for the two final clashes that you really shouldn’t take your eyes off.
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Italy
In my SBOTOP preview of Italy versus Northern Ireland, I said the Green and Whites faced a Mission Impossible against Italy. But they held out until halftime to increase the Azzurri jitters on a tense night in Bergamo. In a frenetic first half, Italy hit the post, and Federico Dimarco forced a fine save from Northern Ireland keeper Pierce Charles. The hosts piled on the pressure, with eight shots on target to Ireland’s one, and it was Newcastle United midfielder Sandro Tonali who broke the deadlock in the 56th minute with a sweet half-volley from the edge of the penalty area.
Inter Milan youngster Pio Esposito almost flicked home the second. But it was Fiorentina striker Moise Kean who settled the Azzurri nerves when he hammered home off the inside of the post, just moments after coming close with a spectacular overhead attempt.
The pressure is off for the moment, but Italy need to step up again when they visit Bosnia on Tuesday, where they will try to avoid missing out on the World Cup finals for the third tournament in succession. The 15,000-capacity Bilino Polje Stadium will be a hostile place to visit, as the hosts do all they can to upset the favourites.
Bosnia reached the final play-off thanks to a win over Wales on penalties after drawing 1-1 in Cardiff. Dan James had given the Welsh a lead with a stunning volley, but 40-year-old Edin Dzeko rolled back the years when he headed home the leveller in the 86th minute. Then, it was down to keeper Nikola Vasilj to keep his nerve, as the Bosnians won the shootout 4-2.
Alongside Dzeko, VfB Stuttgart striker Ermedin Demirovic will cause the Italian defence problems. But with five wins from six games and three clean sheets along the way, I reckon Gennaro Gattuso’s team can see this through. Italy have won four and drawn one of their five meetings with Bosnia, including two victories, 2-0 and 3-0 on their travels. And the Azzurri are at odds of 1.60 to finish it in 90 minutes on Tuesday, with Bosnia priced at 5.50 and the draw at 3.72.
The latest World Cup 2026 betting odds make Gattuso’s men one of the top 10 favourites to win the tournament. But first, they have to get there and avoid that nightmare hat-trick.
Sweden vs Poland
At 33rd in the FIFA world rankings compared to Sweden’s 41st position, Poland must fancy their chances of joining the World Cup’s 48 finalists when they visit the Friends Arena on Tuesday. But they can expect their hosts to be anything but friendly after they navigated a tough tie against Ukraine, winning 3-1 thanks to a hat-trick from Arsenal striker Viktor Gyokeres.
Former Chelsea boss Graham Potter is managing Sweden now, and he has something to prove after flopping at Stamford Bridge and then with West Ham United. So, with Alexander Isak out injured, he must have been delighted to see Gyokeres hit form, scoring after just six minutes. The Arsenal man fired home the second, minutes into the second half, and he completed his hat-trick with a 71st minute penalty before Matviy Ponomarenko headed home a consolation for the Ukrainians in the 90th minute.
Poland came from behind to beat Albania to book their place, trailing at halftime to an Arber Hoxha strike. Robert Lewandowski levelled, heading in a corner in 63 minutes, and midfielder Piotr Zielinski settled the tie 10 minutes later with a superb long-range effort.
With five wins and a draw from their last six games, Poland have been in better shape than their hosts, who beat Ukraine to end a run of four defeats and a draw. But Sweden are favourites to win this tie at 2.00, with Poland at 3.50 and the draw at 3.45.
In other World Cup 2026 news, Denmark and North Macedonia met at the Parken Stadium, and the Danes eased through with a 4-0 win. Now, they face the Czech Republic, who saw off the Republic of Ireland on penalties in their play-off. And the final shootouts are completed by Turkey, who beat Romania 1-0, and they visit Kosovo, the conquerors of Slovakia, edging a seven-goal thriller.
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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