Bundesliga: The Title is Slipping from Leverkusen’s Grip

SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen

With three games to go and an eight point gap to make up it looks very much like we’re entering the last rights of Bayer Leverkusen’s Bundesliga title defence.   

SC Freiburg stand in Die Werkself’s way on Sunday and, currently in fourth place the hosts will take some beating. And the title race may already be run when the two teams step out at the Europa Park Stadion as leaders Bayern Munich visit Red Bull Leipzig on Saturday.  

Julian Schuster’s Freiburg come into the game on the back of a 1-0 win away to Wolfsburg while Leverkusen beat Augsburg 2-0 t keep the title race just about alive, though the Bundesliga 2025 betting odds have long since directed the trophy towards Bavaria.

 

Talking Points

Freiburg are scrapping hard

With three games to play SC Freiburg have that coveted fourth place in their grasp, with a two point lead over Red Bull Leipzig in fifth, and Borussia Dortmund a point further back in sixth. And Schuster’s men have put together a nice string of Bundesliga 2025 results at just the right time. They responded to a 4-1 slapping at the hands of Borussia Dortmund with three consecutive victories. Firstly they picked up a 2-1 win away to Borussia Monchengladbach and they followed that up by edging a five goal thriller at home to TSG Hoffenheim. Top scorer Ritsu Doan scored Freiburg’s crucial third to make it nine goals for the campaign to add to his seven assists.

Last week Freiburg came out on the right side of a tight game against Wolfsburg, winning 1-0 at the Volkswagen Arena as the hosts lost Max Arnold to a red card mid way through the first half. Defender Max Rosenfelder scored the only goal of the game, his first of the season and it was a tough watch for Freiburg fans as their team struggled to overcome the ten men; while they took 15 shots only two were on target and Freiburg will need to be more clinical if they are to beat Leverkusen. But nine points from three games at this stage of the season is not to be sniffed at, and Freiburg now have their destiny back in their own hands. 

The star quality comes in the shape of experienced winger Vincenzo Grifo, the dead ball specialist who has scored eight goals and made ten assists this season, and the 32 year old will be the man Leverkusen will try to keep away from the ball.          

 

Draws will likely cost Leverkusen

While Alonso will push his team all the way to the finish line it seems highly likely that Bayer will have to settle for second place; and they will look at two draws, at home to FC Union Berlin and away to St Pauli, for the reason they have drifted too far behind. Leverkusen’s clash with Augsburg last week was a high pressure affair and Die Werkself responded with a confident 2-0 win as top scorer Patrick Schick bagged his 19^th goal of the campaign. Alongside Florian Wirtz, who has scored nine goals and made 12 assists, Schick has been a handful for defences throughout the Bundesliga but this star studded side has just fallen short, bar an incredible set of results over the next three weeks. And it’s a worrying time for Bayer fans who are set to lose the manager who brought them the title in 2024; and players have made it clear they want to see which way the club is going before they commit a long term future.    

 

History

With 26 wins to 12 Die Werkself have had the better of the head to heads, and they have won the last three encounters, including a 5-1 thumping back in December. 

With three wins, two draws and one defeat Leverkusen have been more consistent than Freiburg over the past six games, but while the hosts have won three and lost three, the victories have come in their last three outings. 

Leverkusen are undefeated away from home with nine wins and six defeats.

 

Betting Tip

The SBOTOP stats team clearly know this is a tight game to call with the hosts at 2.74 to win and their visitors at 2.22. But I strongly suspect the outcome of this game will be determined to a large degree by the result in Leipzig on Saturday. Should the Red Bulls see off Bayern, then Die Werkself will have a huge incentive, but if the Bavarians have already lifted the title, Alonso will have a huge task to lift his team.

So, on the balance of probability, I’m edging towards Freiburg, who will have plenty of motivation in either case and they come into the game bang in form.

   

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