Champions League: Baku Beckons for Buoyant Blues

Qarabag vs Chelsea

Chelsea are off to Baku on Wednesday in search of a third European win of the season when they face Qarabag, who are in the same boat with two wins from three.  

After winning their first two games Qarabag lost to Athletic Bilbao last time out, while Chelsea recovered from a loss to Bayern Munich to record back to back wins. And that makes Champions League: Qarabag vs Chelsea a 13^th versus 11^th clash, with two clubs currently in the play-off zone, but a victory for either will, more than likely, lift them up into the automatic qualification group.

But this is a David versus Goliath clash…the minnows from Azerbaijan against one of the richest clubs on the planet; and one that is in strong form. The Qarabag vs Chelsea betting odds say this is an away win, but the Blues will not arrive in Baku expecting to roll over their hosts…if they are over-confident they will fail. 

Chelsea manager Enzo Maresca will ensure that does not happen.

 

Talking Points

Chelsea can expect a hostile reception

Qarabag will try to make Chelsea feel uncomfortable when they arrive in Azerbaijan and there will be a crackling atmosphere in the stadium, when Gurban Gurbanov leads his team into battle. The Horsemen have been strong at home in their domestic league, unbeaten in five Azerbaijan Premier League matches, and they gave an experienced FC Copenhagen side a rough time when they visited, beating the Danes 2-0.

That result followed on from a stunning 3-2 win away to Portuguese giants Benfica, so this is a team which has no respect for reputation, and they will be keen to hit back after falling to Athletic Bilbao.

Qarabag are led by captain Abdellah Zubir, a stalwart of the club. The French attacking midfielder has scored 49 goals in 188 matches and is a key part of the Horsemen’s creative unit. And watch out too for Leandro Andrade who has scored twice in the Champions League this year, and Colombian winger Camilo Duran, who scored a goal and made an assist in the win over Benfica.  

 

Caicedo makes Chelsea tick

The visitors have a squad packed with household names and they will arrive in Baku in high spirits, having thrived in October and starting November with a derby win away to Spurs. October began with wins over Liverpool and Nottingham Forest in the Premier League before thrashing Ajax 5-1 in the Champions League. Last week Chelsea suffered a blip, losing 2-1 at home to Sunderland but they recovered to beat Wolverhampton Wanderers in the Carabao Cup.   

The Blues clash with London rivals Tottenham Hotspur was a tight affair but Chelsea were never in danger as their defence, with Ecuadorian star Moises Caicedo patrolling the midfield in front, snuffed out the Tottenham threat. And the 24 year old made the goal which won the game, robbing Spurs centre back Mickey Van de Ven and teeing up Brazilian striker Joao Pedro for his first goal in ten games, and lifting the Blues up into fourth place in the Premier League.

Caicedo is the best holding midfielder the Blues have had since N’Golo Kante ruled the roost between 2016 and 2023. His reading of the game is exceptional and his passing skills allow him to turn defence into attack in the blink of an eye. And, alongside Pedro, Chelsea’s front line which includes the exciting teenager Estevao, is always in Caicedo’s sights.

If Qarabag are to stop Chelsea they will need to cut off the supply at source…and that is much easier written than done!     

 

History

These two clubs met in the 2017/18 Champions League and the Blues showed no mercy, handing out a 6-0 thrashing at Stamford Bridge before settling for a 4-0 win in Azerbaijan.

Both clubs come into the game in winning form, Chelsea with five victories and one defeat from the last six, while Qarabag have won four and lost two of their European games, including the qualification play-offs.    

 

Betting Tip

I don’t expect the Qarabag vs Chelsea highlights to be simply an exercise in defence against attack, as the hosts will hold no fear and try to unsettle their illustrious visitors. 

Qarabag can be backed at SBOTOP odds of 8.50 to win with the draw at 5.00; and the Double Chance: Qarabag or Draw is priced at 3.15. But I expect the Blues to weather any early storm and for their quality to shine through and, for an alternative bet, I don’t think 2-0 to Chelsea, at odds of 7.00, will be far from the mark.  

   

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