La Liga: Top Four Race Heats Up as Champs Come to Town

Villarreal vs Real Madrid

Only four La Liga sides are guaranteed a place in next season’s Champions League, and three of them seem dead certs. That means the chase for fourth place in the Spanish top-flight – and the riches that go with it – is more important than ever and offers a real boon for the contender which emerges successful.

As it stands, Athletic Bilbao are in the box seat, but Villarreal are fifth. But if they can deliver some La Liga 2025 highlights against the top team on planet football this weekend, then the battle for fourth may just start to get spicy.

 

Talking Points  

Villarreal, the 2021 Europa League winners, are no stranger to giving the big boys a bloodied nose and have often been undermined by needing to sell their best players in recent seasons: think Alexander Sorloth (to Atletico Madrid) and Nicolas Jackson (to Chelsea) to name just a few. Despite this, they have consistently remained in the top 10 in recent seasons and, under the management of former Valencia boss Marcelino, are making strides again.

In charge from 2013 to 2016, his first period in charge at Estadio de la Cerámica proved to be a successful one with the Spaniard getting the club promoted back to the top-flight before leading them to the semi-finals of the Europa League.

They suffered a 1-0 loss to struggling Deportivo Alaves in the Basque Country last weekend to end what had been an impressive six-match unbeaten run of form.

They will hope club captain Gerard Moreno can return from a recent knock. Otherwise, it appears they have had a fairly routine week, all the while it was quite the opposite for their opponents.

What happened in the second leg of their all-Madrid Champions League tie will be talked about for years to come. The penalty shootout was on a knife edge when Atletico livewire Julian Alvarez slipped and double-tapped the ball.

It proved the pivotal moment in the tie as the spot-kick, which actually found the net, was adjudged to have been an illegal strike by the VAR team, who stated that the Argentine striker had touched the ball with his left foot as well as his right.

From that moment, Real had the advantage and now they turn their attention to domestic matters ahead of the March international break. Jude Bellingham was a doubt for midweek, as was Antonio Rudiger, who had to overcome a bout of illness. Yet both scored in the shootout and will expect to be included at the weekend.

Their new doubt is Ferland Mendy who appeared to suffer a muscle strain during the second leg. Despite trying to push through the discomfort, he eventually signalled to the bench during the closing stages and was substituted.

A fresh team against a side who will be physically and mentally jaded can be a major advantage, but Madrid have long shown their powers of perseverance and you’d be mad to back against them in such scenarios.

 

History

Of their 49 top-flight meetings, Villarreal have only tasted victory on six occasions with 17 draws and 26 Real triumphs. This corresponding fixture last term produced a mini thriller.

Madrid led 1-0, 2-0, 3-1, and 4-1 but were pegged back to draw 4-4 as Sorloth netted all four goals for the Yellow Submarine, including three in the first 11 minutes of the second half. In fact, all four of his goals came in a 17-minute spell.

Some context is required though as Real had already been crowned Spanish champions and had one eye on the Champions League Final a fortnight later which they went to memorably clinch.

It is actually eight years and eight games ago that Real last won this fixture – a 3-2 comeback success courtesy of goals from Gareth Bale, Cristiano Ronaldo, and Alvaro Morata. Again, in fairness, all bar one of those games have ended all square.

Earlier this term, Real were 2-0 winners, thanks to a goal in each half from Federico Valverde and Vinicius Junior.

 

Betting Tip

Real are favourites with the La Liga 2025 betting odds, priced 1X2 @ 2.02 and Asian Handicap -0.75 @ 2.33. Villarreal offer good value too, 1X2 @ 3.08 and +0.25 @ 2.11. Another draw between the sides is on offer @ 3.56 and a repeat – however unlikely – of last year’s 4-4 thriller will pay out at a whopping @ 235.00.

Over 3.50 @ 2.28 and Total Goals 4-6 @ 2.49 have caught my eye, but this SBOTOP scribe has decided to back Real who, after an exerting midweek in the Champions League, may take a while to get going but need the points and will get them ultimately.

   

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