Premier League: Bees Look to Make History at Distracted Gunners

Arsenal vs Brentford

It’s fair to say the 2024-25 Premier League season will be remembered as one which failed to produce either of the compelling narratives which make it tick.

Because, for all of the Premier League 2025 highlights we’ve been treated to on occasion, this SBOTOP observer has not had a title race of any description or any relegation drama to write home about.

One of the reasons for the former is the fact that Arsenal, runners-up for the last two seasons and set to finish second again, have failed to live up to their billing.

Weakened at a key time in the season, firstly by the absences of several key defenders and, more recently, by the lack of frontmen at Mikel Arteta’s disposal, has proved decisive.

And while being undermined by injuries offers some mitigation, the Gunners did not help themselves by failing to recruit a striker in the January transfer window.

Remember, it was January 12 when Gabriel Jesus was ruled out for the season and the club had virtually three weeks to delve into the transfer market to strengthen a squad already missing arguably their best attacking talent in Bukayo Saka.

What all that means is that they have gone almost five years since their last silverware, the 2020 FA Cup, and, with no domestic title to strive for – and this fixture sandwiched between a Champions League double header with Real Madrid (and my word they have an emphatic 3-0 first leg victory behind them) – there will surely never be a better time for Brentford to try and gain a first ever victory at the Emirates Stadium.

 

Talking Points

Apart from one victory in the 1930s, the Bees have never managed to win against the mighty Gunners on their own turf at all.

With Arsenal’s prime focus being their two-legged quarter-final against Real, and their title bid long over, I expect Arteta to rest key men, just as he did in their 1-1 draw at Everton last weekend.

There is no doubt the loss of centre back Gabriel for the rest of the season is a blow and sums up their misfortune at times.

That will likely mean more chances for the likes of Raheem Sterling and Jorginho who have figured fleetingly at times this term.

In fact, at Goodison, Arteta’s line-up indicated exactly where Arsenal’s priorities are as he started the likes of Saka, Martin Odegaard and Thomas Partey on the bench.

I expect it may be the same this weekend and Brentford, fresh from a goalless draw at home to Chelsea, will want to capitalise.

In that game, they again showed they can prove a match for sides on a different financial level and, while they are very much outsiders for a European place, a win in their next three games against teams above them in the standings – Arsenal, Brighton and Nottingham Forest – would change the picture quickly.

Furthermore, their away form has been better than their showings on home soil since the turn of the year; another factor why they should travel to North London with cautious optimism.

Since being promoted in 2021, Brentford have secured finishes of 13^th, ninth and 16^th – always comfortable and never involved in a relegation battle – and the fact they are currently ahead of both Manchester United and Spurs underlines just what a fine job boss Thomas Frank is overseeing.

 

History

This is a contest which has only taken place 21 times – eight of those meetings in the past three and a half years.

The Gunners ran out 2-1 winners in the corresponding fixture last term when a late goal from Kai Havertz kept them in the title hunt.

They also won at the Gtech Community Stadium on New Year’s Day when a first half opener from Bryan Mbeumo was overturned by Jesus, Mikel Merino and Gabriel Martinelli.

Brentford have only won once on Arsenal turf, a 2-0 success in April 1938 at Highbury in Division One.

Their inaugural clash was in the FA Cup, a qualifying round tie which ended 1-1 between Brentford and the then Woolwich Arsenal who went onto win the replay 5-0 at the Manor Ground, Plumstead (then home of the Gunners), four days later.

 

Betting Tip

The Premier League 2025 betting odds back Arsenal as they look to wrap up a third successive runners-up spot as quickly as possible.

This match may be sandwiched between their double header with Real, but they are clear favourites, including with Asian Handicap, -1.25 @ 2.17, and 1X2 @ 1.47.

With that in mind, what have you got to lose by opting for a pay day of a Bees victory, either 1X2 @ 5.60 or Asian Handicap +0.75 @ 2.33.

Even a 1X2 Draw will earn you a tidy sum @ 4.08, while a re-run of 13 months ago is on offer @ 7.40 with Correct Score.

The goal options are all attractive ones and among those that jump out to me are Total Goal 2-3 @ 2.03 and 4-6 @ 2.91.

I do think the Gunners will have enough but, as always against Frank’s well-drilled charges, they will have to work hard for victory and my ** bet is Half Time Full Time Draw Home @ 4.76.

   

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