Serie A: Atalanta’s Challenge Heads to Florence

Fiorentina vs Atalanta

Eighth hosts third as Serie A action returns this weekend when Scudetto dreamers Atalanta travel to take on Europe-chasing Fiorentina in a mouthwatering top-flight clash. 

While Inter Milan and Napoli are in pole position to fight it out for the Serie A title, Atalanta are not totally out of the competition, at six points off the lead and at SBOTOP odds of 13.00 to gatecrash the race. But Gian Piero Gasperini’s side need to find their mojo again after stuttering a little in the New Year, helped to stay in the hunt as runaway leaders Napoli suffered a similar malaise. With just nine games to play, we enter a mini-season and all to play for.   

Raffaele Palladino’s Fiorentina have been hit and miss since the turn of the year too, but they went into the break with a 3-0 win over Juventus, while Atalanta lost at home to league leaders Inter Milan. A victory for either could light a match under their campaigns at just the right time, and that is what makes this game such a compelling prospect.    

 

Talking Points

Are the Viola back on track?

Fiorentina have won only five league games in the first three months of 2025, but the win over Juventus was a real boost just before the break. Palladino’s side are still going well in Europe, into the quarter-finals of the Europa Conference League after beating Panathinaikos in the Round of 16. They have an eminently winnable clash with Slovenian side NK Celje in the final eight and, alongside Real Betis and Chelsea are one of the three favourites to pick up the trophy.

But, while on the hunt for a trophy, La Viola wants to finish in the top six again to guarantee European football again next year, and the form of striker Moise Kean is cause for optimism. The former Juventus, Everton, and PSG star seems to have finally found his home in Florence, scoring 20 goals in 34 appearances for Fiorentina and 15 in the league this season.  

In the big Serie A 2025 news earlier this season, Roma loanee Edoardo Bove suffered a cardiac arrest, and his recovery thankfully remains on track, while La Viola will also be without striker Andrea Colpani, who is nursing a foot injury.   

 

Retegui doubtful for La Dea

The most potent striker in the Italian top-flight, 25-year-old Mateo Retegui has been a sensation in Bergamo since his arrival from Genoa last summer. With 22 goals, he’s running away with the Capocannoniere, seven ahead of Fiorentina’s Kean and nine ahead of his own teammate Ademola Lookman, who sits third in the race alongside Inter Milan’s Marcus Thuram on 13 goals.

Gasperini was hoping his star man would be fit for this huge clash, but Retegui pulled out of the Italy squad for the Azzurri’s Nations League showdowns with Germany. Atalanta fans are hoping that was a precaution and that their man is putting club before country, but time is running out, and Retegui’s appearance is certainly in doubt. With striker Gianluca Scamacca also on the treatment table, Gasperini may need to be inventive with his forward lineup on Sunday.

One option is to push the ever-improving Charles De Ketelaere up alongside Lookman, while 22-year-old attacking midfielder Daniel Maldini is also a strong candidate with four senior Italy appearances already to his name.    

 

History

Fiorentina have had the better of the head-to-heads with 25 wins to Atalanta’s 13 over the last 30 seasons, and there have been 18 draws, though Atalanta won the return match 3-2, as La Dea scored two goals in first half injury time to win the game. 

Before the break, La Viola had three wins and three defeats, while La Dea had two wins, two draws, and two defeats, and both sides are now looking for consistency in the run-in.  

 

Betting Tip

Can Atalanta bring off a major shock and win the 2025 Scudetto? Well, that remains to be seen, and the Serie A 2025 betting odds say La Dea is still in the race. But anything other than a win in Florence will surely see the Bergamo dream evaporate.

La Viola are priced at 3.33 to win, and the draw is at 3.23. And with the Double Chance; Home Win or Draw at 1.83, there is a decent chance of disappointment for Gasperini’s men.

But motivation can be a strong weapon and, while a 1-1 draw is the most likely outcome at 6.30, a 1-0 Atalanta win is at 7.30 and the Dea boss would snap your hand off for that outcome right now.

   

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