Women’s Euro 2025: Can Lionesses Ride Their Luck Against a Dangerous Italy?

England vs Italy

The Women’s Euro 2025 are at the semi-final stage and there’s a tantalising battle due on Tuesday when England meet Italy at the Stade de Geneve.  

Sarina Wiegman’s Lionesses made it through to the last four thanks to a stunning comeback and then a dramatic penalty shootout to beat Sweden, while Andrea Soncin’s Italy beat one of the tournament’s form sides, Norway, in their quarter-final tie. England will be wondering how they made it through to the semis, trailing 2-0 to Sweden with just over ten minutes to play, and then winning a tense shootout despite missing four of their penalties.

The latest Women’s Euros 2025 betting odds make Spain the odds on favourites to win the tournament but both England and Italy are in with a shout now that they have made the last four…and are one step away from the final.   

 

Talking Points

England’s route to the Semi-Final

The Lionesses have had a rather bumpy road to the final, losing their opening match to France. This was the first time a reigning champion had lost its first game at the following Euros, but England were largely outclassed and outthought by a classy French side which was more comfortable than the 2-1 score line suggested. A late Keira Walsh strike papered over the cracks a little but this was a chastening start for Wiegman’s girls.

But, it seemed to be the shake up they needed as they swept aside the Netherlands and Wales, with 4-0 and 6-1 victories. Lauren James scored a double to settle the nerves against the Oranje and there were six separate goal scorers as England hammered the newcomers from Wales to set up a quarter final date with a dangerous Sweden side, which had just whacked Germany 4-1. The hit and miss Germans have just dumped France out of the tournament by the way, so it seems Spain’s path to the final has just become a little easier.        

Sweden really went for England and stormed into a 2-0 lead as the Lionesses struggled to get a foothold. But they hung on, and two assists from substitute Chloe Kelly took the game to extra time. First the Arsenal forward crossed for Lucy Bronze to head home and then, two minutes later, she squared again to give 19 year old Michelle Agyemang a tap in. 

Sweden were the better team in extra time as they tried to wrap up a well earned win, but they failed to hit the target and then, in the strangest penalty shootout you will ever see, the Swedes missed five of their seven efforts. As the 12 yard competition moved into sudden death the Sweden keeper skied her effort which left the door open for Bronze to power home the winner, low and straight down the middle. 

 

Player to watch:Lucy Bronze

England needed the veteran Bronze to pull them out of the mire. First she was on the spot to head the Lionesses back into the game against Sweden, with ten minutes remaining; and the 33 year old was coolness personified as she slammed home the crucial spot kick. Chelsea wingback Bronze is still a classy operator and a match-winner.     

 

Italy’s route to the Semi-Final

The Azzurre’s Women’s Euros 2025 highlights have been a little less spectacular but Soncin’s team has gone about its business with cool heads and no little skill. Bayern Munich midfielder Ariana Caruso gave Italy a 1-0 win over Belgium and then a spectacular Cristiana Girelli strike earned them a 1-1 draw with Portugal. That was enough to book them a quarter-final clash with Norway, but before that they pushed Spain hard, succumbing 3-1 in their final group match.  

Norway stormed through their group stage beating Switzerland, Finland and Iceland but they met their match in Italy, who won 2-1 thanks to a brace from Girelli.   

 

Player to watch: Cristiana Girelli

With three goals in the competition the 35 year old poacher Girelli has proved she still has what it takes and she has now scored 61 goals in 122 caps for Italy over a glittering decade, as well as plundering 101 goals in 135 matches for Juventus. Her 90^th minute winner against Norway has given Italy a shot at the big prize and Girelli will be there to take any chance that comes her way. 

 

History

While England are reigning champions it is 28 years since Italy have reached the Euros semi-final; and the Lionesses have had the better of the head to heads too, winning five of the eight previous encounters.  

With four wins and two defeats from the last six games England are slightly stronger than Italy at three wins, two draws and a defeat.  

 

Betting Tip

England are hot favourites at SBOTOP odds of 1.38 to win this semi-final, with Italy at 5.32 and the draw is priced at 3.88. I’m going with the Azzurre though, as, while England have thrown in two poor performances… Italy have been consistently solid and the Lionesses will find it hard to break the underdogs down.     

   

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