Poland vs Netherlands
A place at the finals in Mexico and North America is up for grabs when the World Cup 2026 qualifying match between Poland and the Netherlands kicks off in Warsaw on Friday night.
The Oranje sit at the top of Group G on 16 points from six games, with Poland breathing down their necks on 13. The Netherlands have a play-off place already guaranteed, but they can book their place at the finals with a win, while a draw will put them within a whisker of the USA showcase.
Both nations come into the match in good form with three wins on the bounce, though Ronald Koeman’s Netherlands have picked up two 4-0 wins to dramatically improve their goal difference.
Jan Urban took over as Poland manager only in September, and he has them moving in the right direction. And while my SBOTOP pal, James, says qualification from Europe is predictable, in the case of the likes of England and Spain, this clash between Poland and the Netherlands has a whole lot riding on it.
Talking Points
Poland must go on the attack
One point from this game would be enough for the Poles to confirm a play-off place, but recent performances have been encouraging enough for Urban to believe his team can take it to the last game, away to Malta. The manager knows the Netherlands carry a dangerous threat, but his own team has more experience and quality in midfield and attack.
Bartlomiej Dragowski is the only keeper with any caps, and three at that, and the Poland defence will feature two wing-backs with attacking intent, Aston Villa’s Matty Cash on the right flank and Jakub Kiwior, now at FC Porto, on the left. Inter Milan’s Piotr Zielinski patrols the midfield and, at 31 years old, is still one of the best passers and dribblers in the European game, also with a willingness to join the attack and take a pot shot.
Skipper Robert Lewandowski is still Poland’s biggest goal threat, despite uncertainty around his future. The legendary goal-scorer has a contract at Barcelona until 2026 and has said he and his family will stay in Europe, with Saudi an unattractive option to Lewi. Alongside the Barca man, either Karol Swiderski, playing at Panathinaikos, or Udinese’s Adam Buksa will look to test the Oranje defence.
Netherlands are the best in both boxes
While I expect the World Cup 2026 highlights to see the hosts go on the attack at some stage of the match, they will face a nation which is at the top of its game in both penalty areas. The Oranje has the best attack in Group G, scoring 22 goals in six games, with Poland second with 10. And in defence, they have conceded the fewest goals (three), while the Poles have conceded four.
To be so good at both business ends of the pitch puts the Netherlands at a big advantage, and with Koeman’s pressing mentality, they will give Poland little time on the ball.
The centre-back pairing of Virgil van Dijk and either Matthijs de Ligt or Nathan Ake is among the best in the world. While the 34-year-old van Dijk has been toiling with Liverpool as the Reds look like handing over their Premier League title before Christmas, he still remains a class act and will relish another tussle with Lewandowski.
Manchester City’s Tijjani Reijnders has shown just how good he can be as an attacking midfielder with superb tight control and world-class delivery. He’s stepping into big shoes at the Etihad, following on from Kevin De Bruyne, but he has made a fine start.
And Reijnders will provide the ammunition for the Netherland’s lethal attack, with Aston Villa’s Donyell Malen and Cody Gakpo of Liverpool possessing the pace, and Wout Weghorst, now at Ajax, a big target man to link up play.
History
These two nations have met 21 times since 1968 and the Netherlands have won 10, drawn eight, and lost just three, and Poland’s last win was way back in 1979.
When the two teams met in Feyenoord in September, Denzel Dumfries gave the Oranje a halftime lead before Matty Cash levelled for Poland 10 minutes from time.
In terms of recent form, Poland have four wins, one draw, and one defeat from the last six games, while the Netherlands have won five and drawn one.
Betting Tip
The hosts are available at odds of 5.00 to win this game, with the draw at 4.00 and the Netherlands hot favourites at 1.65.
At 33rd on the FIFA world rankings, the Poles are way behind the Oranje in sixth, but there is a lag on the data. And while the World Cup 2026 betting odds back an away win, under Urban, Poland have gathered momentum and will be right up for this huge clash in front of a passionate home crowd.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT)
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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